THE DOUCHEBAG 2012 NBA SEASON PREDICTIONS

Philippine Octobers are as exciting as a can of liver spread. In the United States, this is baseball playoffs season, and everyone goes nuts there for this reason, among others (read: Elections). (Digression: I like baseball but just because I can’t talk about it to 763 out of the 770 people I know, it’s pretty lame. End of digression) But in the Philippines, nothing happens in October other than a few birthdays here and there, one or two super typhoon visits, the start of sembreak, and Oktoberfest—which isn’t quite what it’s hyped to be considering that it’s pretty much Oktoberfest every freakin’ month this side of the planet. Of the “ber” months, it is only October that does not have a song named after it or even mentioned in its title (e.g. “September” by Earth, Wind and Fire, “November Rain” by Guns and Roses, “My December” by Linkin Park). (Digression: Actually, Amy Winehouse has a song titled “October Song” but because I still had to google to find it it out, it shouldn’t count in my book. End of digression.) Or in student parlance, if you say you are “Octoberian,” it pretty much means you are distinguished from the “normal” graduate who gets to finish on the usual culmination month. It’s just not a sexy month.

The only good thing about October, at least for us hoops fans, is that it marks the realization of heaps and heaps of pent-up anticipation for the NBA season. Those sleepless nights when visions of Steve Nash lobbing alley-oops to Dwight, Lebron finding Rayray from deep, or Anthony Davis swatting every moving object that enters his area of responsibility, will finally cease to be just mere visions. This is when training camp begins, pre-season starts, and the season finally tips-off.

So in order to satiate my hunger for hoops before I get to chew a truckload of it come November, here are my pre-season predictions for the coming NBA season.   

In the tradition of The Sports Guy, my picks:

(Disclaimer: Again, these are predictions which are entirely based on hunches, speculations, and long stares at the ceiling. Feel free to have your own opinion on any matter written herein.)

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR

Dwight Howard

Tyson Chandler winning the award last year was an aberration. The guy did not even make it to the All-Defensive First Team, which is quite an irony. After dominating the category for three consecutive seasons, the first time ever any human being accomplishing this feat, until he lost it last year, you know D-12 wants his baby back. Add to this an empowered role as anchor of the new Laker defense, you are sure that any small guy who gets by Steve Nash’s matador defense will find himself in deep shit when he sees Superman lurking under the basket.

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR

Jason Terry

The Jet was brought in by the Celtics as replacement for Ray Allen who “treacherously” transferred to conference rival Miami. But he won’t be starting. Doc Rivers has already made up his mind to have him off the bench. Well and good, as the Jet’s instant offense would be like a burst of Nitrous Oxide to the Celtic bench. Just ask the Mavericks. 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR

Damian Lillard

He tore up Summer League, and he’s tearing up pre-season but this will be as unpopular a pick as Kedebon. Much as I like Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, but I think the Sixth Over-all Pick from less-known Weber State is the most ready to contribute big for his team this season. He will be the Blazers’ starting point guard, and is expected to produce immediately given the relative lack of offensive firepower on the team. And on that regard, we can expect him to carry a big chunk of the scoring load while also performing his facilitating chores as point guard—which will immediately impact his PPG and APG numbers. So, I’m betting on him for this season. But of course, he is not going to be better than The Brow or MKD in the long run. That you can count on.

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER

Wesley Johnson

I would have inserted John Wall’s name here thinking that this year would be his coming-out party, until his knees came crashing for an early season injury. So, in default, I choose a Phoenix Sun—Wesley Johnson. Johnson is a former 4^th over-all pick who has so far fallen short of expectations. Back in Syracuse, he was a total stud who thrived under the fast-paced offense and confidence given him by Jim Boeheim. In Minnesota, he was a round peg trying to squeeze into a square hole. He is long, athletic and has a decent stroke, and with this change of scenery to the Suns who, like Syracuse, are always looking to go full throttle, he may just get his college mojo back and finally live up to the hype.

COACH OF THE YEAR

Alvin Gentry

Every so-called basketball expert has basically written the post-Nash Suns off and labeled as shoo-ins for the lottery, but I’m getting a feeling Alvin Gentry is going to surprise a lot of folks this season. So for the realistic, though remote, possibility that the Suns are going to make a decent run for the playoffs in spite of their glaring roster deficiencies, their coach should bag this. 

EXECUTIVE OF THE YEAR

Danny Ainge

At the end of Game Seven of last season’s Eastern Conference Finals when Miami shattered the collective hearts of the Celtics, Doc Rivers looked like a mom about to lose a son to marriage. He was emotional, almost in tears. We were watching then what we thought was the end of an era—the final hurrah of the Boston Big Four. We thought then that the Celtics were poised to return to the irrelevant Celtics of the late 90’s to early 2000’s.

Fast forward to this season, and these Celtics don’t look anything like what we envisioned. Yes, the Big Four indeed broke up in a sense, but Ray Allen’s shoes seem like they will be ably filled-up by Jason Terry. Jarred Sullinger looks like a steal in the draft. Coming off respective injuries, Jeff Green has been tearing it up in the pre-season and Avery Bradley is looking to improve on his already impressive rookie campaign last season. Factor in the tremendous learning experience and confidence Rondo gained last playoffs, and the steady presence of KG and Pierce, and you still have a contender. Not enough though to beat the Heat, but good enough to at least contend. So that’s a big congrats to Danny Ainge for refusing to be left for dead.      

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER

Lebron James

Does anyone of you honestly think that after Lebron has finally grown some balls and figured out how to use his exceptional athleticism and physique to dominate the game of basketball during the last playoffs, he would just throw it all away and return to his awkward fade-aways from 15 feet and beta-male complex during crunch time? I don’t think so too either.

MVP RUNNER-UP

Chris Paul

As CP3 is seeing his Staples Center housemates—the Lakers—revamp their roster and push themselves as legit title contenders, he must be seething mad inside (because if Stern did not veto last year’s trade to the Lakers, he may have been a Laker by now). Yes he now has a hopefully-sane Lamar Odom, a healthy Grant Hill and a still-explosive Jamal Crawford, plus a year older Blake Griffin, but he very well knows that in order to equal or at least come within a few notches close to their city rivals, he has to be the absolute best pointguard in the game. He has to create the separation between him and the next best—whoever that may be. He needs to take masterful control of the Clippers, talented as they are. He has to make the plays when it counts. And with his fiery competitiveness, you know he’ll be up to the task at hand. 

EASTERN CONFERENCE CHAMPS

Miami Heat

Unless Lebron suffers some nasty freak injury in the playoffs, no one in the East can touch the Heat. No one. Not the crippled Bulls. Not the aging Celtics. Not the inconsistent Knicks. Not the up-and-coming Nets. No one. So for the third year in a row, give the Eastern title to Miami. They are a huge-ass dinosaur right now, way too much for their eastern competition to swallow.

Western Conference Champs

Oklahoma City Thunder

Unlike in the East where the choice is pretty much locked, the West should be in for a photo-finish. The defending Western Champs, though, are in for a solid challenge from the ridiculously formidable Lakers, the much-improved Clippers, the dangerous Nuggets and the steady Spurs. Not to mention two darkhorses in the Grizzlies and T-wolves. That’s about as solid a playoff cast as you can get. I’m giving this to the Thunder though on the ground of “equity of the incumbent.” Plus they got potential jackpots in former No. 2 pick defensive specialist Hasheem Thabeet and former can’t-miss prospect Perry Jones III.      

Darkhorse of the Year

Minnesota Timberwolves

            Sure, All-Star Kevin Love will be out for two months, and sophomore sensation Rubio still has to come back. And sure, this team is a perennial lighting rod of bad luck. But for sure, you also know that this team was in the cusp of the playoffs last year—without Rubio for most of the season. And you also know that Euroleague MVP Andrei Kirilenko and Russian National Team pointguard Alexei Shved, fresh from sensational Olympics tenures, are out to prove that they belong in the big league, with the big boys. Add to this the fact that Nikola Pekovic is proving that he can mix it up with the best bigs of the game. And whaddayaknow, you got a playoff contender who is going to strike fear into the hearts of any first round opponent.